SC St. Tönis v Holzheimer SG prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

SC St. Tönis 1–0 Holzheimer SG SC ST. TÖNIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC St. Tönis win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.096

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC St. Tönis are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC St. Tönis 75%, draw 14%, Holzheimer SG 12%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on SC St. Tönis v Holzheimer SGBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SC St. Tönis win75%

Draw14%

Holzheimer SG win12%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundNiederrhein · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC St. Tönis

Holzheimer SG

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	SC St. Tönis	9	+4	14
18	Holzheimer SG	9	−21	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc st. tönis winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make SC St. Tönis a 75% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–1.3, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC St. Tönis v Holzheimer SG~~3.27 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 4~~8 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC St. Tönis win	75%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Holzheimer SG win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
SC St. Tönis or draw	88%	–	–
SC St. Tönis clean sheet	28%	–	–
Holzheimer SG clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.5%

0123450 1 3.5 4.9 3.0 2 5.7 7.2 4.6 3 6.0 7.5 4.8 2.1 4 4.9 6.1 3.8 5 3.2 4.0 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC St. Tönis down, Holzheimer SG across0–5 goals a side shown (87.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,781 Oberliga - Niederrhein matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niederrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.8% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC St. Tönis at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Holzheimer SG away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.27 goals for SC St. Tönis, 1.28 for Holzheimer SG. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HOL 0–5 SCS · SCS 2–4 HOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 6 Sept

SC ST. TÖNIS

WWLWLL3–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 2–3

HOLZHEIMER SG

LDLLWL0–5 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Schonnebeck	9	+21	23
2	SSVg Velbert	9	+10	21
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	10	+12	20
4	Sonsbeck	10	+4	16
5	SF Baumberg	10	+2	16
6	BW Dingden	10	0	16
7	Solingen-Wald	9	−3	15
8	SC St. Tönis	9	+4	14
9	Germania Ratingen	10	+1	14
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	9	+9	13
11	Wuppertaler SV	10	+5	13
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	9	−1	13
13	Monheim	9	+4	12
14	Scherpenberg	9	−10	8
15	Büderich	10	−14	7
16	SW Essen	10	−11	6
17	Meerbusch	9	−12	5
18	Holzheimer SG	9	−21	4