Monheim v Meerbusch prediction · Oberliga - Niederrhein

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Monheim 4–2 Meerbusch MONHEIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monheim win~~49%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.386

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.392

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monheim are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Monheim 49%, draw 23%, Meerbusch 27%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Monheim v MeerbuschBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Monheim win49%

Draw23%

Meerbusch win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundNiederrhein · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monheim

Meerbusch

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Monheim	9	+4	12
17	Meerbusch	9	−12	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · monheim winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:40 · locked at kick-off

49% The market49%

Us49%

~~Market~~49%

We make Monheim a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monheim v Meerbusch~~1.88 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 5~~13 v 17

~~The market · Monheim win~~49% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monheim win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monheim win	49%	49%	0
Draw	23%	23%	0
Meerbusch win	27%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	61%	+1
Both teams to score	62%	62%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
Monheim or draw	73%	72%	+1
Monheim clean sheet	27%	–	–
Meerbusch clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.7 5.0 3.7 1 7.1 10.4 6.7 3.0 2 7.0 9.2 6.1 2.8 3 4.4 5.7 3.8 4 2.1 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monheim down, Meerbusch across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,781 Oberliga - Niederrhein matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niederrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.8% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monheim at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Meerbusch away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Monheim, 1.35 for Meerbusch. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MON 0–1 MEE · MEE 1–1 MON · MEE 2–3 MON · MON 2–0 MEE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 6 Sept

MONHEIM

WLLLDW5–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

MEERBUSCH

LDLLLW0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 3–4 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Schonnebeck	9	+21	23
2	SSVg Velbert	9	+10	21
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	10	+12	20
4	Sonsbeck	10	+4	16
5	SF Baumberg	10	+2	16
6	BW Dingden	10	0	16
7	Solingen-Wald	9	−3	15
8	SC St. Tönis	9	+4	14
9	Germania Ratingen	10	+1	14
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	9	+9	13
11	Wuppertaler SV	10	+5	13
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	9	−1	13
13	Monheim	9	+4	12
14	Scherpenberg	9	−10	8
15	Büderich	10	−14	7
16	SW Essen	10	−11	6
17	Meerbusch	9	−12	5
18	Holzheimer SG	9	−21	4