Fortuna Düsseldorf II v SC St. Tönis prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1–1 SC St. Tönis FORTUNA DÜSSELDORF II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Fortuna Düsseldorf II win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.916

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fortuna Düsseldorf II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fortuna Düsseldorf II 45%, draw 22%, SC St. Tönis 33%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Fortuna Düsseldorf II v SC St. TönisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Fortuna Düsseldorf II win45%

Draw22%

SC St. Tönis win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundNiederrhein · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

SC St. Tönis

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	10	+12	20
4	SC St. Tönis	10	+5	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fortuna düsseldorf ii winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Fortuna Düsseldorf II a 45% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fortuna Düsseldorf II v SC St. Tönis~~1.98 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 17~~3 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortuna Düsseldorf II win	45%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
SC St. Tönis win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Fortuna Düsseldorf II or draw	67%	–	–
Fortuna Düsseldorf II clean sheet	20%	–	–
SC St. Tönis clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.3 4.1 3.7 2.1 1 5.0 9.0 7.0 3.9 2 5.2 8.3 6.8 3.8 3 3.4 5.5 4.4 2.5 4 2.8 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortuna Düsseldorf II down, SC St. Tönis across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,786 Oberliga - Niederrhein matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niederrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.1% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Fortuna Düsseldorf II at home: 2.00 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). SC St. Tönis away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf II, 1.66 for SC St. Tönis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 13 Sept

FORTUNA DÜSSELDORF II

WDWLDW3–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–0

SC ST. TÖNIS

WLWLLW2–1 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Schonnebeck	10	+24	26
2	SSVg Velbert	10	+11	24
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	10	+12	20
4	SC St. Tönis	10	+5	17
5	Sonsbeck	10	+4	16
6	SF Baumberg	10	+2	16
7	BW Dingden	10	0	16
8	Monheim	10	+6	15
9	Solingen-Wald	10	−4	15
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	10	+9	14
11	Germania Ratingen	10	+1	14
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	10	−1	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	10	+5	13
14	Scherpenberg	10	−13	8
15	Büderich	10	−14	7
16	SW Essen	10	−11	6
17	Meerbusch	10	−14	5
18	Holzheimer SG	10	−22	4