Büderich v SF Baumberg prediction · Oberliga - Niederrhein

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 23:01

Büderich 0–0 SF Baumberg BÜDERICH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Büderich win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.957

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Büderich just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Büderich 40%, draw 20%, SF Baumberg 39%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 78%.

The AI’s read on Büderich v SF BaumbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Büderich win40%

Draw20%

SF Baumberg win39%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundNiederrhein · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Büderich

SF Baumberg

7Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Niederrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	SF Baumberg	9	+2	15
16	Büderich	9	−14	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · büderich winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Büderich a 40% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.2, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Büderich v SF Baumberg~~2.18 – 2.15

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 15~~16 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Büderich win

Published at 41%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Büderich win	40%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
SF Baumberg win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	78%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
Büderich or draw	61%	–	–
Büderich clean sheet	12%	–	–
SF Baumberg clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 7.0%

0123450 2.7 3.1 2.2 1 2.7 6.5 6.5 4.7 2.5 2 3.2 6.6 7.0 5.0 2.7 3 2.3 4.8 5.0 3.6 4 2.6 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Büderich down, SF Baumberg across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,777 Oberliga - Niederrhein matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Niederrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Büderich at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). SF Baumberg away: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Büderich, 2.15 for SF Baumberg. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BUD 3–1 SFB · SFB 1–2 BUD · SFB 1–1 BUD · BUD 5–0 SFB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Niederrhein this season · since 6 Sept

BÜDERICH

LLLLLD1–7 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 2–2

SF BAUMBERG

WDWLLD4–1 · 4–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Schonnebeck	9	+21	23
2	SSVg Velbert	9	+10	21
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	9	+10	17
4	BW Dingden	9	+2	16
5	SF Baumberg	9	+2	15
6	Solingen-Wald	9	−3	15
7	SC St. Tönis	9	+4	14
8	Germania Ratingen	9	+3	14
9	KFC Uerdingen 05	9	+9	13
10	Sonsbeck	9	+2	13
11	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	9	−1	13
12	Monheim	9	+4	12
13	Wuppertaler SV	9	+4	10
14	Scherpenberg	9	−10	8
15	SW Essen	9	−10	6
16	Büderich	9	−14	6
17	Meerbusch	9	−12	5
18	Holzheimer SG	9	−21	4