Wegberg-Beeck v SSV Merten prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Wegberg-Beeck 0–3 SSV Merten SSV MERTEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SSV Merten win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.540

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match pulse

FULL TIME

Match outcome probability (%)

Wegberg-BeeckDrawSSV Merten

Our model, re-priced from the score and the clock at every minuteFull time

Full time · Wegberg-Beeck 0–3 SSV Merten

AI match analysis

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Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Wegberg-Beeck

SSV Merten

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wegberg-Beeck	6	+12	16
5	SSV Merten	6	+9	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Wegberg-Beeck win37%

Draw23%

SSV Merten win41%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ssv merten winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

41% The market–

Us41%

We make SSV Merten a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wegberg-Beeck win	37%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
SSV Merten win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Wegberg-Beeck or draw	59%	–	–
Wegberg-Beeck clean sheet	18%	–	–
SSV Merten clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.1 5.8 5.2 3.0 1 5.5 9.8 8.0 4.7 2.1 2 4.7 7.7 6.5 3.8 3 2.6 4.3 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wegberg-Beeck down, SSV Merten across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,293 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.0% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wegberg-Beeck at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). SSV Merten away: 3.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Wegberg-Beeck, 1.75 for SSV Merten. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WEG 2–2 SSV · SSV 1–2 WEG · SSV 4–1 WEG · WEG 3–0 SSV

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein

WEGBERG-BEECK

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–1 · 7–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

SSV MERTEN

LWDWLW0–2 · 5–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wegberg-Beeck	6	+12	16
2	Eintracht Hohkeppel	6	+9	13
3	Fortuna Köln II	5	+6	12
4	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	6	+3	11
5	SSV Merten	6	+9	10
6	Chlodwig Zulpich	6	−1	10
7	Hürth	6	+1	9
8	Bornheim	7	0	9
9	VfL Vichttal	6	+5	8
10	Frechen	6	0	8
11	Düren Merzenich	6	−2	7
12	Hennef 05	6	−3	7
13	Porz	6	−4	5
14	Siegburger SV	6	−5	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	7	−9	4
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	5	−21	0