TuS BW Königsdorf v Porz prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

TuS BW Königsdorf 2–1 Porz TUS BW KÖNIGSDORF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said TuS BW Königsdorf win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.310

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match pulse

FULL TIME

Match outcome probability (%)

TuS BW KönigsdorfDrawPorz

Our model, re-priced from the score and the clock at every minuteFull time

Full time · TuS BW Königsdorf 2–1 Porz

AI match analysis

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Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

TuS BW Königsdorf

Porz

9Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Porz	6	−4	5
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	5	−21	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

TuS BW Königsdorf win55%

Draw17%

Porz win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tus bw königsdorf winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

55% The market–

Us55%

We make TuS BW Königsdorf a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–2.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
TuS BW Königsdorf win	55%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Porz win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	86%	–	–
Both teams to score	80%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	71%	–	–
TuS BW Königsdorf or draw	72%	–	–
TuS BW Königsdorf clean sheet	14%	–	–
Porz clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.1%

0123450 1 2.3 4.6 4.2 2.8 2 3.4 6.1 5.8 3.9 2.1 3 3.1 5.7 5.4 3.6 4 2.2 4.0 3.9 2.6 5 2.4 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+TuS BW Königsdorf down, Porz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,293 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.0% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

TuS BW Königsdorf at home: 2.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Porz away: 1.50 scored, 4.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.88 goals for TuS BW Königsdorf, 2.09 for Porz. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~POR 1–3 TUS · TUS 3–2 POR · POR 1–0 TUS · TUS 0–2 POR

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein

TUS BW KÖNIGSDORF

WLLLLL2–0 · 1–4 · 0–7 · 1–7 · 1–4 · 3–5

PORZ

DDLWLL2–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wegberg-Beeck	6	+12	16
2	Eintracht Hohkeppel	6	+9	13
3	Fortuna Köln II	5	+6	12
4	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	6	+3	11
5	SSV Merten	6	+9	10
6	Chlodwig Zulpich	6	−1	10
7	Hürth	6	+1	9
8	Bornheim	7	0	9
9	VfL Vichttal	6	+5	8
10	Frechen	6	0	8
11	Düren Merzenich	6	−2	7
12	Hennef 05	6	−3	7
13	Porz	6	−4	5
14	Siegburger SV	6	−5	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	7	−9	4
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	5	−21	0