SSV Merten v TuS BW Königsdorf prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

SSV Merten 4–0 TuS BW Königsdorf SSV MERTEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SSV Merten win~~84%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.036

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SSV Merten are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SSV Merten 84%, draw 9%, TuS BW Königsdorf 7%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on SSV Merten v TuS BW KönigsdorfBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SSV Merten win84%

Draw9%

TuS BW Königsdorf win7%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMittelrhein · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SSV Merten

TuS BW Königsdorf

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	SSV Merten	7	+12	13
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	6	−20	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ssv merten winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

84% The market–

Us84%

We make SSV Merten an 84% chance to win. The model expects 4.4–1.1, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SSV Merten v TuS BW Königsdorf~~4.41 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 3~~4 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SSV Merten win	84%	–	–
Draw	9%	–	–
TuS BW Königsdorf win	7%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	87%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	74%	–	–
SSV Merten or draw	93%	–	–
SSV Merten clean sheet	35%	–	–
TuS BW Königsdorf clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.0%

0123450 1 2.8 3.2 2 4.8 5.2 3.0 3 5.6 6.0 3.4 4 5.3 5.6 3.0 5 4.4 4.5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+SSV Merten down, TuS BW Königsdorf across0–5 goals a side shown (70.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,300 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.2% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SSV Merten at home: 5.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). TuS BW Königsdorf away: 1.33 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.41 goals for SSV Merten, 1.09 for TuS BW Königsdorf. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SSV 3–1 TUS · TUS 1–0 SSV · SSV 3–1 TUS · TUS 3–1 SSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 30 Aug

SSV MERTEN

WDWLWW5–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 6–1 · 3–0

TUS BW KÖNIGSDORF

LLLLLW1–4 · 0–7 · 1–7 · 1–4 · 3–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Hohkeppel	7	+10	16
2	Wegberg-Beeck	7	+9	16
3	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	7	+4	14
4	SSV Merten	7	+12	13
5	Fortuna Köln II	6	+5	12
6	Frechen	7	+1	11
7	Düren Merzenich	7	0	10
8	Chlodwig Zulpich	7	−2	10
9	Bornheim	7	0	9
10	Hürth	7	0	9
11	VfL Vichttal	7	+4	8
12	Siegburger SV	7	−4	8
13	Hennef 05	7	−5	7
14	Porz	7	−5	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	7	−9	4
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	6	−20	3