Porz v Hennef 05 prediction · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Porz 1–2 Hennef 05 PORZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Porz win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.572

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Porz just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Porz 39%, draw 22%, Hennef 05 39%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Porz v Hennef 05Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Porz win39%

Draw22%

Hennef 05 win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMittelrhein · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Porz

Hennef 05

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Hennef 05	7	−5	7
14	Porz	7	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · porz winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Porz a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Porz v Hennef 05~~1.89 – 1.89

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~14 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Porz win	39%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Hennef 05 win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Porz or draw	61%	–	–
Porz clean sheet	16%	–	–
Hennef 05 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.9 4.3 4.2 2.6 1 4.3 8.3 7.4 4.7 2.3 2 4.2 7.4 6.8 4.3 2.1 3 2.6 4.7 4.3 2.7 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Porz down, Hennef 05 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,300 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.2% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Porz at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hennef 05 away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Porz, 1.89 for Hennef 05. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~POR 1–5 HEN · HEN 2–0 POR · POR 5–1 HEN · HEN 1–4 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 6 Sept

PORZ

DLWLLL2–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–2

HENNEF 05

WLLWLL2–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Hohkeppel	7	+10	16
2	Wegberg-Beeck	7	+9	16
3	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	7	+4	14
4	SSV Merten	7	+12	13
5	Fortuna Köln II	6	+5	12
6	Frechen	7	+1	11
7	Düren Merzenich	7	0	10
8	Chlodwig Zulpich	7	−2	10
9	Bornheim	7	0	9
10	Hürth	7	0	9
11	VfL Vichttal	7	+4	8
12	Siegburger SV	7	−4	8
13	Hennef 05	7	−5	7
14	Porz	7	−5	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	7	−9	4
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	6	−20	3