Hürth v Frechen prediction · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Hürth 1–2 Frechen FRECHEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Frechen win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.565

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Hürth win35%

Draw26%

Frechen win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hürth

Frechen

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hürth	6	+1	9
10	Frechen	6	0	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · frechen winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Frechen a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hürth win	35%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Frechen win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Hürth or draw	61%	–	–
Hürth clean sheet	25%	–	–
Frechen clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.4 8.8 6.3 3.1 1 8.2 11.7 8.0 3.9 2 5.6 7.6 5.4 2.7 3 2.6 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hürth down, Frechen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,293 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.0% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hürth at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Frechen away: 1.67 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Hürth, 1.43 for Frechen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HUR 2–3 FRE · FRE 3–3 HUR · HUR 1–0 FRE · FRE 3–1 HUR

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein

HÜRTH

DDWLDW0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–0

FRECHEN

WLLDDW4–0 · 1–3 · 2–5 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wegberg-Beeck	6	+12	16
2	Eintracht Hohkeppel	6	+9	13
3	Fortuna Köln II	5	+6	12
4	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	6	+3	11
5	SSV Merten	6	+9	10
6	Chlodwig Zulpich	6	−1	10
7	Hürth	6	+1	9
8	Bornheim	7	0	9
9	VfL Vichttal	6	+5	8
10	Frechen	6	0	8
11	Düren Merzenich	6	−2	7
12	Hennef 05	6	−3	7
13	Porz	6	−4	5
14	Siegburger SV	6	−5	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	7	−9	4
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	5	−21	0