Hennef 05 v SSV Merten prediction · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hennef 05DrawSSV Merten

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · SSV Merten 69%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SSV Merten are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hennef 05 14%, draw 17%, SSV Merten 69%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Hennef 05 v SSV MertenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Hennef 05 win14%

Draw17%

SSV Merten win69%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMittelrhein · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hennef 05

SSV Merten

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	SSV Merten	8	+16	16
11	Hennef 05	8	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ssv merten winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

69% The market–

Us69%

We make SSV Merten a 69% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hennef 05 v SSV Merten~~1.09 – 2.66

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~11 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hennef 05 win	14%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
SSV Merten win	69%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Hennef 05 or draw	31%	–	–
Hennef 05 clean sheet	8%	–	–
SSV Merten clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.6%

0123450 2.9 6.4 8.3 7.2 4.8 2.71 2.7 7.1 8.6 7.3 4.9 2.72 3.9 4.7 4.0 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hennef 05 down, SSV Merten across0–5 goals a side shown (93.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,309 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hennef 05 at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). SSV Merten away: 3.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Hennef 05, 2.66 for SSV Merten. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SSV 4–0 HEN · HEN 0–3 SSV · HEN 1–0 SSV · SSV 1–2 HEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 13 Sept

HENNEF 05

LLWLLW0–3 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

SSV MERTEN

DWLWWW2–2 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 6–1 · 3–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wegberg-Beeck	8	+11	19
2	Eintracht Hohkeppel	8	+10	17
3	SSV Merten	8	+16	16
4	Düren Merzenich	9	+2	16
5	Frechen	8	+2	14
6	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	8	+1	14
7	Fortuna Köln II	7	+4	12
8	VfL Vichttal	8	+7	11
9	Siegburger SV	8	0	11
10	Chlodwig Zulpich	8	−4	10
11	Hennef 05	8	−4	10
12	Bornheim	8	−1	9
13	Hürth	8	−4	9
14	Porz	9	−7	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	8	−9	5
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	7	−24	3