Hennef 05 v Düren Merzenich prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Hennef 05 1–3 Düren Merzenich HENNEF 05 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hennef 05 win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.634

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Hennef 05 win41%

Draw23%

Düren Merzenich win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hennef 05

Düren Merzenich

7Days since last match9

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Düren Merzenich	6	−2	7
12	Hennef 05	6	−3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hennef 05 winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Hennef 05 a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hennef 05 win	41%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Düren Merzenich win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Hennef 05 or draw	64%	–	–
Hennef 05 clean sheet	21%	–	–
Düren Merzenich clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.3 5.6 4.7 2.5 1 6.1 10.0 7.6 4.1 2 5.4 8.2 6.4 3.5 3 3.1 4.8 3.8 2.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hennef 05 down, Düren Merzenich across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,293 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.0% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hennef 05 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Düren Merzenich away: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Hennef 05, 1.60 for Düren Merzenich. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HEN 1–0 DUR · DUR 2–0 HEN · DUR 5–1 HEN · HEN 0–2 DUR

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein

HENNEF 05

DWLLWL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 0–1

DÜREN MERZENICH

LDWLLW2–6 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 5–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wegberg-Beeck	6	+12	16
2	Eintracht Hohkeppel	6	+9	13
3	Fortuna Köln II	5	+6	12
4	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	6	+3	11
5	SSV Merten	6	+9	10
6	Chlodwig Zulpich	6	−1	10
7	Hürth	6	+1	9
8	Bornheim	7	0	9
9	VfL Vichttal	6	+5	8
10	Frechen	6	0	8
11	Düren Merzenich	6	−2	7
12	Hennef 05	6	−3	7
13	Porz	6	−4	5
14	Siegburger SV	6	−5	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	7	−9	4
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	5	−21	0