Frechen v Bornheim prediction · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Frechen 2–1 Bornheim FRECHEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Frechen win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.371

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Frechen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Frechen 51%, draw 19%, Bornheim 30%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Frechen v BornheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Frechen win51%

Draw19%

Bornheim win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMittelrhein · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Frechen

Bornheim

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Frechen	7	+1	11
9	Bornheim	7	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · frechen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Frechen a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.9, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Frechen v Bornheim~~2.47 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~6 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Frechen win	51%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Bornheim win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
Frechen or draw	70%	–	–
Frechen clean sheet	16%	–	–
Bornheim clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.2%

0123450 2.5 2.4 1 3.3 6.3 5.6 3.5 2 4.1 7.2 6.5 4.1 3 3.3 5.8 5.3 3.3 4 2.0 3.6 3.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Frechen down, Bornheim across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,300 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.2% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Frechen at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bornheim away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.47 goals for Frechen, 1.90 for Bornheim. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FRE 1–4 BOR · BOR 1–5 FRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 6 Sept

FRECHEN

LLDDWW1–3 · 2–5 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

BORNHEIM

LLLWLW1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 4–3 · 1–5 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Hohkeppel	7	+10	16
2	Wegberg-Beeck	7	+9	16
3	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	7	+4	14
4	SSV Merten	7	+12	13
5	Fortuna Köln II	6	+5	12
6	Frechen	7	+1	11
7	Düren Merzenich	7	0	10
8	Chlodwig Zulpich	7	−2	10
9	Bornheim	7	0	9
10	Hürth	7	0	9
11	VfL Vichttal	7	+4	8
12	Siegburger SV	7	−4	8
13	Hennef 05	7	−5	7
14	Porz	7	−5	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	7	−9	4
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	6	−20	3