Düren Merzenich v Porz prediction · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Düren Merzenich 2–1 Porz DÜREN MERZENICH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Düren Merzenich win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.170

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Düren Merzenich are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Düren Merzenich 66%, draw 16%, Porz 18%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Düren Merzenich v PorzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Düren Merzenich win66%

Draw16%

Porz win18%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMittelrhein · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Düren Merzenich

Porz

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Düren Merzenich	8	+1	13
14	Porz	8	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · düren merzenich winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Düren Merzenich a 66% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Düren Merzenich v Porz~~3.02 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 5~~6 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Düren Merzenich win

Published at 65%, 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Düren Merzenich win	66%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Porz win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
Düren Merzenich or draw	82%	–	–
Düren Merzenich clean sheet	22%	–	–
Porz clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.2%

0123450 1 3.3 5.2 3.9 2.0 2 4.9 7.2 5.5 2.8 3 4.7 7.0 5.3 2.7 4 3.5 5.2 3.9 2.0 5 2.2 3.2 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Düren Merzenich down, Porz across0–5 goals a side shown (89.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,308 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Düren Merzenich at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Porz away: 1.17 scored, 4.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.02 goals for Düren Merzenich, 1.54 for Porz. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DUR 5–2 POR · POR 1–2 DUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 13 Sept

DÜREN MERZENICH

WLLWWW3–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 5–3 · 3–1 · 3–2

PORZ

LWLLLL0–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wegberg-Beeck	8	+11	19
2	Eintracht Hohkeppel	8	+10	17
3	SSV Merten	8	+16	16
4	Frechen	8	+2	14
5	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	8	+1	14
6	Düren Merzenich	8	+1	13
7	Fortuna Köln II	7	+4	12
8	VfL Vichttal	8	+7	11
9	Siegburger SV	8	0	11
10	Chlodwig Zulpich	8	−4	10
11	Hennef 05	8	−4	10
12	Bornheim	8	−1	9
13	Hürth	8	−4	9
14	Porz	8	−6	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	8	−9	5
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	7	−24	3