Düren Merzenich v Fortuna Köln II prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Düren Merzenich 3–2 Fortuna Köln II DÜREN MERZENICH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Düren Merzenich win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.546

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Düren Merzenich just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Düren Merzenich 40%, draw 21%, Fortuna Köln II 38%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Düren Merzenich v Fortuna Köln IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Düren Merzenich win40%

Draw21%

Fortuna Köln II win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMittelrhein · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Düren Merzenich

Fortuna Köln II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Fortuna Köln II	6	+5	12
7	Düren Merzenich	7	0	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · düren merzenich winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Düren Merzenich a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Düren Merzenich v Fortuna Köln II~~1.95 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Düren Merzenich win	40%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Fortuna Köln II win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Düren Merzenich or draw	62%	–	–
Düren Merzenich clean sheet	16%	–	–
Fortuna Köln II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.7 4.1 4.0 2.5 1 4.3 8.2 7.2 4.5 2.2 2 4.2 7.5 6.8 4.2 2.1 3 2.7 4.8 4.4 2.7 4 2.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Düren Merzenich down, Fortuna Köln II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,300 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.2% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Düren Merzenich at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fortuna Köln II away: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Düren Merzenich, 1.90 for Fortuna Köln II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DUR 2–5 FOR · FOR 0–2 DUR · FOR 1–7 DUR · DUR 4–0 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 30 Aug

DÜREN MERZENICH

DWLLWW0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 5–3 · 3–1

FORTUNA KÖLN II

WLWWWL3–2 · 1–2 · 5–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Hohkeppel	7	+10	16
2	Wegberg-Beeck	7	+9	16
3	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	7	+4	14
4	SSV Merten	7	+12	13
5	Fortuna Köln II	6	+5	12
6	Frechen	7	+1	11
7	Düren Merzenich	7	0	10
8	Chlodwig Zulpich	7	−2	10
9	Bornheim	7	0	9
10	Hürth	7	0	9
11	VfL Vichttal	7	+4	8
12	Siegburger SV	7	−4	8
13	Hennef 05	7	−5	7
14	Porz	7	−5	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	7	−9	4
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	6	−20	3