Bornheim v Siegburger SV prediction · Oberliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BornheimDrawSiegburger SV

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Siegburger SV 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Siegburger SV are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bornheim 36%, draw 20%, Siegburger SV 44%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Bornheim v Siegburger SVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Bornheim win36%

Draw20%

Siegburger SV win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:30

RoundMittelrhein · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bornheim

Siegburger SV

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Mittelrhein

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Siegburger SV	8	0	11
12	Bornheim	8	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · siegburger sv winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Siegburger SV a 44% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bornheim v Siegburger SV~~2.04 – 2.28

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~12 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bornheim win	36%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Siegburger SV win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
Bornheim or draw	56%	–	–
Bornheim clean sheet	11%	–	–
Siegburger SV clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 6.8%

0123450 3.1 3.5 2.6 1 2.9 6.5 6.8 5.0 2.9 2 3.0 6.3 6.7 5.0 2.9 3 2.0 4.2 4.6 3.4 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bornheim down, Siegburger SV across0–5 goals a side shown (94.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,309 Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Mittelrhein matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bornheim at home: 3.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Siegburger SV away: 1.83 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Bornheim, 2.28 for Siegburger SV. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOR 1–3 SIE · SIE 2–2 BOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Mittelrhein this season · since 13 Sept

BORNHEIM

LLWLWL1–3 · 0–2 · 4–3 · 1–5 · 6–1 · 1–2

SIEGBURGER SV

DDLLWW2–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wegberg-Beeck	8	+11	19
2	Eintracht Hohkeppel	8	+10	17
3	SSV Merten	8	+16	16
4	Düren Merzenich	9	+2	16
5	Frechen	8	+2	14
6	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	8	+1	14
7	Fortuna Köln II	7	+4	12
8	VfL Vichttal	8	+7	11
9	Siegburger SV	8	0	11
10	Chlodwig Zulpich	8	−4	10
11	Hennef 05	8	−4	10
12	Bornheim	8	−1	9
13	Hürth	8	−4	9
14	Porz	9	−7	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	8	−9	5
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	7	−24	3