Vfb Marburg v Unter-Flockenbach prediction · Oberliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Vfb MarburgDrawUnter-Flockenbach

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vfb Marburg 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vfb Marburg just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Vfb Marburg 40%, draw 24%, Unter-Flockenbach 36%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Vfb Marburg v Unter-FlockenbachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Vfb Marburg win40%

Draw24%

Unter-Flockenbach win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundHessen · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vfb Marburg

Unter-Flockenbach

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Unter-Flockenbach	15	+15	32
9	Vfb Marburg	15	−2	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vfb marburg winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Vfb Marburg a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vfb Marburg v Unter-Flockenbach~~1.80 – 1.69

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 32~~9 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vfb Marburg win	40%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Unter-Flockenbach win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Vfb Marburg or draw	64%	–	–
Vfb Marburg clean sheet	19%	–	–
Unter-Flockenbach clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.2 4.3 4.4 2.5 1 4.6 10.2 7.7 4.3 2 5.0 8.2 6.8 3.9 3 3.0 4.9 4.1 2.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vfb Marburg down, Unter-Flockenbach across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,811 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vfb Marburg at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Unter-Flockenbach away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Vfb Marburg, 1.69 for Unter-Flockenbach. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VFB 3–3 UNT · UNT 0–0 VFB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 19 Sept

VFB MARBURG

LLWLDL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–3

UNTER-FLOCKENBACH

WLLWDW3–1 · 2–7 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	15	+30	33
2	Unter-Flockenbach	15	+15	32
3	Friedberg	15	+10	27
4	Hadamar	15	+8	27
5	Eddersheim	15	+2	25
6	Darmstadt 98 II	15	+16	24
7	TuBa Pohlheim	14	0	23
8	Fernwald	15	+4	21
9	Vfb Marburg	15	−2	21
10	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	15	−7	20
11	Hünfelder SV	14	−1	19
12	Kassel	14	−10	18
13	Bayern Alzenau	15	−3	17
14	Baunatal	15	−7	16
15	1960 Hanau	15	−14	13
16	Hummetroth	14	−8	12
17	Kassel 2	15	−12	12
18	FC Gießen	15	−21	9