Vfb Marburg v Baunatal prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Vfb Marburg 2–2 Baunatal BAUNATAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baunatal win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Baunatal just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Vfb Marburg 36%, draw 28%, Baunatal 36%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Vfb Marburg v BaunatalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vfb Marburg win36%

Draw28%

Baunatal win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundHessen · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vfb Marburg

Baunatal

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Vfb Marburg	13	+1	20
13	Baunatal	13	−5	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · baunatal winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Baunatal a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vfb Marburg v Baunatal~~1.36 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 15~~7 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vfb Marburg win	36%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Baunatal win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Vfb Marburg or draw	64%	–	–
Vfb Marburg clean sheet	26%	–	–
Baunatal clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.2 7.6 6.1 2.8 1 7.6 13.3 8.1 3.7 2 6.1 8.1 5.5 2.5 3 2.8 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vfb Marburg down, Baunatal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,795 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vfb Marburg at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Baunatal away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Vfb Marburg, 1.36 for Baunatal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VFB 0–3 BAU · BAU 2–2 VFB · VFB 0–5 BAU · BAU 5–0 VFB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 9 Sept

VFB MARBURG

WLLLWL2–0 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

BAUNATAL

WLDWLW2–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	13	+25	29
2	Unter-Flockenbach	13	+12	28
3	Eddersheim	13	+8	25
4	Hadamar	13	+3	23
5	Darmstadt 98 II	13	+14	21
6	Friedberg	13	+4	21
7	Vfb Marburg	13	+1	20
8	TuBa Pohlheim	13	−1	20
9	Hünfelder SV	13	+1	19
10	Fernwald	13	+2	17
11	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	13	−6	17
12	Bayern Alzenau	13	−2	16
13	Baunatal	13	−5	15
14	Kassel	13	−11	15
15	Kassel 2	13	−8	11
16	1960 Hanau	13	−12	10
17	Hummetroth	13	−10	9
18	FC Gießen	13	−15	9