Kassel v Hummetroth prediction · Oberliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KasselDrawHummetroth

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Kassel 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kassel are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kassel 45%, draw 22%, Hummetroth 33%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Kassel v HummetrothBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Kassel win45%

Draw22%

Hummetroth win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundHessen · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kassel

Hummetroth

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Kassel	14	−10	18
16	Hummetroth	14	−8	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kassel winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Kassel a 45% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kassel v Hummetroth~~2.16 – 1.84

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~12 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kassel win	45%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Hummetroth win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Kassel or draw	67%	–	–
Kassel clean sheet	16%	–	–
Hummetroth clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.8 2.7 3.2 1 3.3 8.0 6.6 4.1 2 4.3 7.7 7.0 4.3 2.0 3 3.1 5.6 5.0 3.1 4 3.0 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kassel down, Hummetroth across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,811 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kassel at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hummetroth away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Kassel, 1.84 for Hummetroth. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HUM 2–4 KAS · KAS 2–3 HUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 12 Sept

KASSEL

WWDLDW2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–2

HUMMETROTH

WWDLLW6–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	15	+30	33
2	Unter-Flockenbach	15	+15	32
3	Friedberg	15	+10	27
4	Hadamar	15	+8	27
5	Eddersheim	15	+2	25
6	Darmstadt 98 II	15	+16	24
7	TuBa Pohlheim	14	0	23
8	Fernwald	15	+4	21
9	Vfb Marburg	15	−2	21
10	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	15	−7	20
11	Hünfelder SV	14	−1	19
12	Kassel	14	−10	18
13	Bayern Alzenau	15	−3	17
14	Baunatal	15	−7	16
15	1960 Hanau	15	−14	13
16	Hummetroth	14	−8	12
17	Kassel 2	15	−12	12
18	FC Gießen	15	−21	9