Kassel v Fernwald prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Kassel 0–0 Fernwald FERNWALD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fernwald win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.879

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match pulse

FULL TIME

Match outcome probability (%)

KasselDrawFernwald

Our model, re-priced from the score and the clock at every minuteFull time

Full time · Kassel 0–0 Fernwald

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kassel

Fernwald

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Fernwald	12	+2	16
14	Kassel	12	−11	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kassel win33%

Draw24%

Fernwald win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fernwald winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Fernwald a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kassel win	33%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Fernwald win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Kassel or draw	57%	–	–
Kassel clean sheet	15%	–	–
Fernwald clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 4.4 5.1 3.3 1 3.7 9.8 8.3 5.3 2.6 2 3.9 7.3 6.9 4.4 2.2 3 2.2 4.1 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kassel down, Fernwald across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,791 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.7% of games this season, across 113 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kassel at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fernwald away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Kassel, 1.92 for Fernwald. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FER 3–3 KAS · KAS 0–2 FER

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen

KASSEL

WLWWDL2–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

FERNWALD

WDLDDD2–0 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Unter-Flockenbach	13	+12	28
2	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	12	+24	26
3	Eddersheim	12	+9	25
4	Hadamar	13	+3	23
5	Friedberg	13	+4	21
6	Vfb Marburg	13	+1	20
7	TuBa Pohlheim	12	0	20
8	Hünfelder SV	13	+1	19
9	Darmstadt 98 II	12	+10	18
10	Fernwald	12	+2	16
11	Bayern Alzenau	13	−2	16
12	Baunatal	13	−5	15
13	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	12	−7	14
14	Kassel	12	−11	14
15	Kassel 2	12	−4	11
16	1960 Hanau	13	−12	10
17	Hummetroth	13	−10	9
18	FC Gießen	13	−15	9