Hünfelder SV v Friedberg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Hünfelder SV 0–2 Friedberg HÜNFELDER SV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hünfelder SV win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.607

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hünfelder SV just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hünfelder SV 39%, draw 24%, Friedberg 37%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Hünfelder SV v FriedbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hünfelder SV win39%

Draw24%

Friedberg win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundHessen · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hünfelder SV

Friedberg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Friedberg	13	+4	21
9	Hünfelder SV	13	+1	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hünfelder sv winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Hünfelder SV a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hünfelder SV v Friedberg~~1.84 – 1.78

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 21~~9 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hünfelder SV win	39%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Friedberg win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Hünfelder SV or draw	63%	–	–
Hünfelder SV clean sheet	17%	–	–
Friedberg clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.8 3.9 4.3 2.6 1 4.0 9.7 7.7 4.6 2.1 2 4.6 7.9 7.0 4.2 3 2.8 4.9 4.3 2.6 4 2.3 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hünfelder SV down, Friedberg across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,795 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hünfelder SV at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Friedberg away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Hünfelder SV, 1.78 for Friedberg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FRI 3–4 HUN · HUN 0–2 FRI · FRI 1–1 HUN · HUN 0–4 FRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 8 Sept

HÜNFELDER SV

LLWLLL1–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 0–1

FRIEDBERG

DLWWLL3–3 · 2–4 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	13	+25	29
2	Unter-Flockenbach	13	+12	28
3	Eddersheim	13	+8	25
4	Hadamar	13	+3	23
5	Darmstadt 98 II	13	+14	21
6	Friedberg	13	+4	21
7	Vfb Marburg	13	+1	20
8	TuBa Pohlheim	13	−1	20
9	Hünfelder SV	13	+1	19
10	Fernwald	13	+2	17
11	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	13	−6	17
12	Bayern Alzenau	13	−2	16
13	Baunatal	13	−5	15
14	Kassel	13	−11	15
15	Kassel 2	13	−8	11
16	1960 Hanau	13	−12	10
17	Hummetroth	13	−10	9
18	FC Gießen	13	−15	9