Hummetroth v Rot-Weiß Walldorf prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Hummetroth 3–1 Rot-Weiß Walldorf HUMMETROTH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hummetroth win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.567

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hummetroth just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hummetroth 39%, draw 21%, Rot-Weiß Walldorf 39%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Hummetroth v Rot-Weiß WalldorfBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hummetroth win39%

Draw21%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundHessen · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hummetroth

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	13	−6	17
17	Hummetroth	13	−10	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hummetroth winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Hummetroth a 39% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–2.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hummetroth v Rot-Weiß Walldorf~~2.12 – 2.11

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 17~~17 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hummetroth win	39%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Rot-Weiß Walldorf win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
Hummetroth or draw	61%	–	–
Hummetroth clean sheet	13%	–	–
Rot-Weiß Walldorf clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.3%

0123450 2.3 2.4 3.3 2.3 1 2.4 7.3 6.8 4.8 2.5 2 3.3 6.8 7.1 5.0 2.7 3 2.3 4.8 5.0 3.5 4 2.6 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hummetroth down, Rot-Weiß Walldorf across0–5 goals a side shown (95.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,795 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hummetroth at home: 2.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rot-Weiß Walldorf away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Hummetroth, 2.11 for Rot-Weiß Walldorf. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HUM 1–3 ROT · ROT 4–3 HUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 9 Sept

HUMMETROTH

LWWDLL0–3 · 6–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

ROT-WEISS WALLDORF

LWWWDW1–3 · 4–3 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	13	+25	29
2	Unter-Flockenbach	13	+12	28
3	Eddersheim	13	+8	25
4	Hadamar	13	+3	23
5	Darmstadt 98 II	13	+14	21
6	Friedberg	13	+4	21
7	Vfb Marburg	13	+1	20
8	TuBa Pohlheim	13	−1	20
9	Hünfelder SV	13	+1	19
10	Fernwald	13	+2	17
11	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	13	−6	17
12	Bayern Alzenau	13	−2	16
13	Baunatal	13	−5	15
14	Kassel	13	−11	15
15	Kassel 2	13	−8	11
16	1960 Hanau	13	−12	10
17	Hummetroth	13	−10	9
18	FC Gießen	13	−15	9