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Hadamar v Vfb Marburg

Hadamar

2–0Full time

Vfb Marburg

Oberliga - Hessen · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Hadamar 2–0 Vfb Marburg HADAMAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hadamar win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.477

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Hadamar win44%

Draw27%

Vfb Marburg win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hadamar winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Hadamar a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hadamar win	44%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Vfb Marburg win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Hadamar or draw	70%	–	–
Hadamar clean sheet	27%	–	–
Vfb Marburg clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.8 5.6 4.6 2.0 1 7.3 12.3 7.2 3.2 2 7.0 8.9 5.9 2.6 3 3.8 4.9 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hadamar down, Vfb Marburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,786 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.8% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hadamar at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vfb Marburg away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Hadamar, 1.32 for Vfb Marburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen

HADAMAR

LWWLWL0–5 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–1

VFB MARBURG

LWLLLW0–2 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	12	+24	26
2	Unter-Flockenbach	12	+11	25
3	Eddersheim	12	+9	25
4	Friedberg	12	+6	21
5	Vfb Marburg	12	+3	20
6	Hadamar	12	+1	20
7	TuBa Pohlheim	12	0	20
8	Hünfelder SV	12	+2	19
9	Darmstadt 98 II	12	+10	18
10	Fernwald	12	+2	16
11	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	12	−7	14
12	Kassel	12	−11	14
13	Bayern Alzenau	12	−4	13
14	Baunatal	12	−7	12
15	Kassel 2	12	−4	11
16	1960 Hanau	12	−10	10
17	Hummetroth	12	−9	9
18	FC Gießen	12	−16	6