Friedberg v Kassel 2 prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Friedberg 5–1 Kassel 2 FRIEDBERG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Friedberg win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.255

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Friedberg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Friedberg 59%, draw 22%, Kassel 2 19%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Friedberg v Kassel 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Friedberg win59%

Draw22%

Kassel 2 win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundHessen · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Friedberg

Kassel 2

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Friedberg	14	+6	24
17	Kassel 2	14	−8	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · friedberg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Friedberg a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Friedberg v Kassel 2~~2.16 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 12~~4 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Friedberg win	59%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Kassel 2 win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Friedberg or draw	81%	–	–
Friedberg clean sheet	32%	–	–
Kassel 2 clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.8 3.4 2.5 1 6.9 9.9 5.2 2.1 2 8.3 9.5 5.5 2.2 3 6.0 6.8 4.0 4 3.3 3.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Friedberg down, Kassel 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,804 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Friedberg at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kassel 2 away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Friedberg, 1.17 for Kassel 2. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 12 Sept

FRIEDBERG

LWWLLW2–4 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–0

KASSEL 2

LLLWLD3–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	14	+30	32
2	Unter-Flockenbach	14	+12	29
3	Eddersheim	14	+7	25
4	Friedberg	14	+6	24
5	Hadamar	14	+3	24
6	TuBa Pohlheim	14	0	23
7	Darmstadt 98 II	14	+13	21
8	Vfb Marburg	14	+1	21
9	Hünfelder SV	14	−1	19
10	Fernwald	14	+2	18
11	Kassel	14	−10	18
12	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	14	−8	17
13	Bayern Alzenau	14	−3	16
14	Baunatal	14	−5	16
15	1960 Hanau	14	−11	13
16	Hummetroth	14	−8	12
17	Kassel 2	14	−8	12
18	FC Gießen	14	−20	9