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Friedberg v Bayern Alzenau

Friedberg

0–2Full time

Bayern Alzenau

Oberliga - Hessen · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Friedberg 0–2 Bayern Alzenau FRIEDBERG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Friedberg win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.773

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Friedberg win46%

Draw25%

Bayern Alzenau win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · friedberg winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Friedberg a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Friedberg win	46%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Bayern Alzenau win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Friedberg or draw	71%	–	–
Friedberg clean sheet	24%	–	–
Bayern Alzenau clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 4.3 3.9 1 5.8 11.0 7.0 3.4 2 6.4 8.9 6.4 3.1 3 3.9 5.5 4.0 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Friedberg down, Bayern Alzenau across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,786 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.8% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.12 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Friedberg at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bayern Alzenau away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Friedberg, 1.44 for Bayern Alzenau. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FRI 0–1 BAY · BAY 3–1 FRI · BAY 3–0 FRI · FRI 0–2 BAY

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen

FRIEDBERG

WDLWWL2–1 · 3–3 · 2–4 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

BAYERN ALZENAU

LWLDWW0–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	12	+24	26
2	Unter-Flockenbach	12	+11	25
3	Eddersheim	12	+9	25
4	Friedberg	12	+6	21
5	Vfb Marburg	12	+3	20
6	Hadamar	12	+1	20
7	TuBa Pohlheim	12	0	20
8	Hünfelder SV	12	+2	19
9	Darmstadt 98 II	12	+10	18
10	Fernwald	12	+2	16
11	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	12	−7	14
12	Kassel	12	−11	14
13	Bayern Alzenau	12	−4	13
14	Baunatal	12	−7	12
15	Kassel 2	12	−4	11
16	1960 Hanau	12	−10	10
17	Hummetroth	12	−9	9
18	FC Gießen	12	−16	6