Fernwald v Hadamar prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Fernwald 2–2 Hadamar FERNWALD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fernwald win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.906

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fernwald are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fernwald 53%, draw 24%, Hadamar 23%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Fernwald v HadamarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fernwald win53%

Draw24%

Hadamar win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundHessen · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fernwald

Hadamar

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hadamar	13	+3	23
10	Fernwald	13	+2	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fernwald winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Fernwald a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fernwald v Hadamar~~1.95 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 9 Sept~~W0 D5 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 23~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fernwald win	53%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Hadamar win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Fernwald or draw	77%	–	–
Fernwald clean sheet	29%	–	–
Hadamar clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.5 4.1 3.2 1 7.0 10.9 6.1 2.6 2 7.8 9.4 5.8 2.5 3 5.1 6.1 3.8 4 2.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fernwald down, Hadamar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,795 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fernwald at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hadamar away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Fernwald, 1.25 for Hadamar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FER 4–1 HAD · HAD 0–4 FER · FER 2–1 HAD · HAD 4–0 FER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 9 Sept

FERNWALD

DLDDDD1–1 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

HADAMAR

WWLWLW2–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	13	+25	29
2	Unter-Flockenbach	13	+12	28
3	Eddersheim	13	+8	25
4	Hadamar	13	+3	23
5	Darmstadt 98 II	13	+14	21
6	Friedberg	13	+4	21
7	Vfb Marburg	13	+1	20
8	TuBa Pohlheim	13	−1	20
9	Hünfelder SV	13	+1	19
10	Fernwald	13	+2	17
11	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	13	−6	17
12	Bayern Alzenau	13	−2	16
13	Baunatal	13	−5	15
14	Kassel	13	−11	15
15	Kassel 2	13	−8	11
16	1960 Hanau	13	−12	10
17	Hummetroth	13	−10	9
18	FC Gießen	13	−15	9