Darmstadt 98 II v Vfb Marburg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Darmstadt 98 II 3–0 Vfb Marburg DARMSTADT 98 II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Darmstadt 98 II win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.255

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Darmstadt 98 II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Darmstadt 98 II 59%, draw 22%, Vfb Marburg 19%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Darmstadt 98 II v Vfb MarburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Darmstadt 98 II win59%

Draw22%

Vfb Marburg win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundHessen · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Darmstadt 98 II

Vfb Marburg

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Darmstadt 98 II	14	+13	21
8	Vfb Marburg	14	+1	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · darmstadt 98 ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Darmstadt 98 II a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Darmstadt 98 II v Vfb Marburg~~2.11 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 21~~7 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Darmstadt 98 II win

Published at 60%, 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Darmstadt 98 II win	59%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Vfb Marburg win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Darmstadt 98 II or draw	81%	–	–
Darmstadt 98 II clean sheet	33%	–	–
Vfb Marburg clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 5.1 3.5 2.5 1 7.4 10.2 5.2 2 8.7 9.6 5.4 2.1 3 6.1 6.8 3.8 4 3.3 3.6 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Darmstadt 98 II down, Vfb Marburg across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,804 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Darmstadt 98 II at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vfb Marburg away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Darmstadt 98 II, 1.13 for Vfb Marburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DAR 4–0 VFB · VFB 2–1 DAR · DAR 3–1 VFB · VFB 1–0 DAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 12 Sept

DARMSTADT 98 II

LLLWWL2–3 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 0–1

VFB MARBURG

LLLWLD2–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	14	+30	32
2	Unter-Flockenbach	14	+12	29
3	Eddersheim	14	+7	25
4	Friedberg	14	+6	24
5	Hadamar	14	+3	24
6	TuBa Pohlheim	14	0	23
7	Darmstadt 98 II	14	+13	21
8	Vfb Marburg	14	+1	21
9	Hünfelder SV	14	−1	19
10	Fernwald	14	+2	18
11	Kassel	14	−10	18
12	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	14	−8	17
13	Bayern Alzenau	14	−3	16
14	Baunatal	14	−5	16
15	1960 Hanau	14	−11	13
16	Hummetroth	14	−8	12
17	Kassel 2	14	−8	12
18	FC Gießen	14	−20	9