Bayern Alzenau v TuBa Pohlheim prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Bayern Alzenau 0–1 TuBa Pohlheim BAYERN ALZENAU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bayern Alzenau win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayern Alzenau are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bayern Alzenau 48%, draw 25%, TuBa Pohlheim 27%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Bayern Alzenau v TuBa PohlheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bayern Alzenau win48%

Draw25%

TuBa Pohlheim win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundHessen · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bayern Alzenau

TuBa Pohlheim

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	TuBa Pohlheim	13	−1	20
12	Bayern Alzenau	13	−2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bayern alzenau winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Bayern Alzenau a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bayern Alzenau v TuBa Pohlheim~~1.88 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 9 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 20~~12 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bayern Alzenau win	48%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
TuBa Pohlheim win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Bayern Alzenau or draw	73%	–	–
Bayern Alzenau clean sheet	26%	–	–
TuBa Pohlheim clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 4.3 3.7 1 6.2 11.0 6.8 3.2 2 6.8 9.1 6.3 2.9 3 4.2 5.7 3.9 4 2.0 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bayern Alzenau down, TuBa Pohlheim across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,795 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Bayern Alzenau at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). TuBa Pohlheim away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Bayern Alzenau, 1.38 for TuBa Pohlheim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 9 Sept

BAYERN ALZENAU

WLDWWW2–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 2–0

TUBA POHLHEIM

DWLLWL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	13	+25	29
2	Unter-Flockenbach	13	+12	28
3	Eddersheim	13	+8	25
4	Hadamar	13	+3	23
5	Darmstadt 98 II	13	+14	21
6	Friedberg	13	+4	21
7	Vfb Marburg	13	+1	20
8	TuBa Pohlheim	13	−1	20
9	Hünfelder SV	13	+1	19
10	Fernwald	13	+2	17
11	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	13	−6	17
12	Bayern Alzenau	13	−2	16
13	Baunatal	13	−5	15
14	Kassel	13	−11	15
15	Kassel 2	13	−8	11
16	1960 Hanau	13	−12	10
17	Hummetroth	13	−10	9
18	FC Gießen	13	−15	9