Baunatal v Fernwald prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Baunatal 0–2 Fernwald BAUNATAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baunatal win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.680

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Baunatal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baunatal 40%, draw 27%, Fernwald 33%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Baunatal v FernwaldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Baunatal win40%

Draw27%

Fernwald win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundHessen · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baunatal

Fernwald

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Hessen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Fernwald	14	+2	18
14	Baunatal	14	−5	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · baunatal winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Baunatal a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baunatal v Fernwald~~1.57 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D5 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 18~~14 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baunatal win	40%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Fernwald win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Baunatal or draw	67%	–	–
Baunatal clean sheet	25%	–	–
Fernwald clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.5 6.1 5.1 2.4 1 6.9 12.2 7.8 3.7 2 6.3 8.7 6.1 2.9 3 3.3 4.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baunatal down, Fernwald across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,804 Oberliga - Hessen matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hessen matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baunatal at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Fernwald away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Baunatal, 1.41 for Fernwald. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FER 1–2 BAU · BAU 2–1 FER · FER 1–1 BAU · BAU 0–2 FER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hessen this season · since 12 Sept

BAUNATAL

LDWLWD0–3 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

FERNWALD

LDDDDD3–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	14	+30	32
2	Unter-Flockenbach	14	+12	29
3	Eddersheim	14	+7	25
4	Friedberg	14	+6	24
5	Hadamar	14	+3	24
6	TuBa Pohlheim	14	0	23
7	Darmstadt 98 II	14	+13	21
8	Vfb Marburg	14	+1	21
9	Hünfelder SV	14	−1	19
10	Fernwald	14	+2	18
11	Kassel	14	−10	18
12	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	14	−8	17
13	Bayern Alzenau	14	−3	16
14	Baunatal	14	−5	16
15	1960 Hanau	14	−11	13
16	Hummetroth	14	−8	12
17	Kassel 2	14	−8	12
18	FC Gießen	14	−20	9