Vorwärts-Wacker 04 v Concordia prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 5–2 Concordia VORWÄRTS-WACKER 04 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vorwärts-Wacker 04 win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.302

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vorwärts-Wacker 04 55%, draw 18%, Concordia 26%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Vorwärts-Wacker 04 v ConcordiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 win55%

Draw18%

Concordia win26%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundHamburg · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vorwärts-Wacker 04

Concordia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	11	+2	18
16	Concordia	11	−9	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vorwärts-wacker 04 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Vorwärts-Wacker 04 a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.8, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vorwärts-Wacker 04 v Concordia~~2.63 – 1.80

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 11~~6 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 win	55%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Concordia win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 or draw	74%	–	–
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 clean sheet	17%	–	–
Concordia clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.3%

0123450 2.2 2.0 1 3.2 5.8 5.1 3.1 2 4.2 7.3 6.4 3.9 3 3.6 6.3 5.5 3.3 4 2.4 4.1 3.6 2.2 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Vorwärts-Wacker 04 down, Concordia across0–5 goals a side shown (93.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,608 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Concordia away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.63 goals for Vorwärts-Wacker 04, 1.80 for Concordia. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VOR 2–1 CON · CON 3–4 VOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 4 Sept

VORWÄRTS-WACKER 04

DWDWLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 7–1

CONCORDIA

WWDLWL3–1 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	11	+11	25
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	11	+8	22
4	Altona 93	10	+6	20
5	HT16	11	+13	19
6	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	11	+2	18
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Süderelbe	11	+3	15
10	Buchholz	11	−5	15
11	Sasel	11	−3	14
12	ETSV Hamburg	10	0	13
13	HEBC	11	−4	12
14	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	11	−9	11
16	Concordia	11	−9	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	11	−22	4