Victoria Hamburg v Teutonia Ottensen prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Victoria Hamburg 2–2 Teutonia Ottensen VICTORIA HAMBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Victoria Hamburg win~~63%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.094

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.102

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Victoria Hamburg are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Victoria Hamburg 63%, draw 18%, Teutonia Ottensen 19%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Victoria Hamburg v Teutonia OttensenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Victoria Hamburg win63%

Draw18%

Teutonia Ottensen win19%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundHamburg · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Victoria Hamburg

Teutonia Ottensen

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Victoria Hamburg	11	+8	22
15	Teutonia Ottensen	11	−9	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · victoria hamburg winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

63% The market62%

Us63%

~~Market~~62%

We make Victoria Hamburg a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Victoria Hamburg v Teutonia Ottensen~~2.47 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 11~~3 v 15

~~The market · Victoria Hamburg win~~62% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Victoria Hamburg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Victoria Hamburg win	63%	62%	+1
Draw	18%	18%	0
Teutonia Ottensen win	19%	20%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	73%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	61%	−9
Victoria Hamburg or draw	81%	80%	+1
Victoria Hamburg clean sheet	28%	–	–
Teutonia Ottensen clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.6 3.1 2.0 1 5.8 7.5 4.8 2.1 2 7.1 8.9 5.8 2.5 3 5.8 7.2 4.7 2.1 4 3.6 4.5 2.9 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Victoria Hamburg down, Teutonia Ottensen across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,608 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Victoria Hamburg at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Teutonia Ottensen away: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.47 goals for Victoria Hamburg, 1.30 for Teutonia Ottensen. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TEU 2–0 VIC · VIC 2–0 TEU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 4 Sept

VICTORIA HAMBURG

DWWDDW1–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

TEUTONIA OTTENSEN

LLDWLL1–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 6–3 · 1–4 · 1–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	11	+11	25
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	11	+8	22
4	Altona 93	10	+6	20
5	HT16	11	+13	19
6	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	11	+2	18
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Süderelbe	11	+3	15
10	Buchholz	11	−5	15
11	Sasel	11	−3	14
12	ETSV Hamburg	10	0	13
13	HEBC	11	−4	12
14	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	11	−9	11
16	Concordia	11	−9	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	11	−22	4