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Victoria Hamburg v ETSV Hamburg

Victoria Hamburg

18:30Upcoming

ETSV Hamburg

Oberliga - Hamburg · FRI 30 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Victoria HamburgDrawETSV Hamburg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · ETSV Hamburg 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ETSV Hamburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Victoria Hamburg 32%, draw 20%, ETSV Hamburg 47%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Victoria Hamburg v ETSV HamburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Victoria Hamburg win32%

Draw20%

ETSV Hamburg win47%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:30

RoundHamburg · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Victoria Hamburg

ETSV Hamburg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	+11	26
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	−1	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · etsv hamburg winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make ETSV Hamburg a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Victoria Hamburg v ETSV Hamburg~~1.80 – 2.19

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 26 v 14~~2 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Victoria Hamburg win	32%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
ETSV Hamburg win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Victoria Hamburg or draw	53%	–	–
Victoria Hamburg clean sheet	12%	–	–
ETSV Hamburg clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.8%

0123450 2.1 4.1 4.5 3.3 1 3.4 7.3 7.8 5.7 3.2 2 3.0 6.4 6.9 5.1 2.8 3 3.9 4.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Victoria Hamburg down, ETSV Hamburg across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,622 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games this season, across 112 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Victoria Hamburg at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). ETSV Hamburg away: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Victoria Hamburg, 2.19 for ETSV Hamburg. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ETS 1–1 VIC · VIC 1–2 ETS · ETS 3–0 VIC · VIC 3–1 ETS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 18 Sept

VICTORIA HAMBURG

WDDWDW3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–0

ETSV HAMBURG

WWLLDL2–1 · 4–1 · 4–6 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	13	+13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	+11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	+6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	12	+16	23
5	Niendorfer TSV	13	+3	23
6	Altona 93	12	+5	21
7	HT16	12	+13	20
8	Pinneberg	12	+6	20
9	Süderelbe	13	+3	18
10	Sasel	12	−2	17
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	12	−9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	−1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	−11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	−2	11
16	Concordia	13	−15	11
17	Harksheide	12	−11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	−22	7