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Tus Dassendorf v Victoria Hamburg

Tus Dassendorf

1–2Full time

Victoria Hamburg

Oberliga - Hamburg · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Tus Dassendorf 1–2 Victoria Hamburg TUS DASSENDORF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tus Dassendorf win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.138

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Tus Dassendorf win65%

Draw18%

Victoria Hamburg win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tus dassendorf winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Tus Dassendorf a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tus Dassendorf win	65%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Victoria Hamburg win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Tus Dassendorf or draw	83%	–	–
Tus Dassendorf clean sheet	31%	–	–
Victoria Hamburg clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 2.9 3.2 1 6.6 7.7 4.5 2 8.0 9.1 5.4 2.2 3 6.4 7.4 4.4 4 4.0 4.5 2.7 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Tus Dassendorf down, Victoria Hamburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,602 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tus Dassendorf at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Victoria Hamburg away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.44 goals for Tus Dassendorf, 1.18 for Victoria Hamburg. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VIC 5–3 TUS · TUS 1–2 VIC · TUS 2–0 VIC · VIC 2–2 TUS

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg

TUS DASSENDORF

WWLWDW3–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 3–3 · 4–2

VICTORIA HAMBURG

WDWWDD1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tus Dassendorf	10	+18	23
2	Paloma	10	+9	22
3	HT16	11	+13	19
4	Victoria Hamburg	10	+7	19
5	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	11	+2	18
6	Altona 93	9	+4	17
7	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
8	Pinneberg	10	+4	16
9	Buchholz	10	−3	15
10	ETSV Hamburg	9	+1	13
11	Sasel	10	−3	13
12	Süderelbe	10	+1	12
13	HEBC	10	−2	12
14	Nikola Tesla	10	+1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	11	−9	11
16	Concordia	11	−9	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	10	−23	1