Süderelbe v Sasel prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Süderelbe 1–2 Sasel SÜDERELBE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Süderelbe win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Süderelbe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Süderelbe 49%, draw 20%, Sasel 31%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Süderelbe v SaselBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Süderelbe win49%

Draw20%

Sasel win31%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundHamburg · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Süderelbe

Sasel

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Süderelbe	11	+3	15
11	Sasel	11	−3	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · süderelbe winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Süderelbe a 49% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Süderelbe v Sasel~~2.19 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 14~~9 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Süderelbe win

Published at 48%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Süderelbe win	49%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Sasel win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Süderelbe or draw	69%	–	–
Süderelbe clean sheet	18%	–	–
Sasel clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.2 3.5 3.0 1 4.4 7.6 6.4 3.7 2 4.9 8.1 6.9 4.0 3 3.6 5.9 5.0 2.9 4 3.3 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Süderelbe down, Sasel across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,608 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Süderelbe at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sasel away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Süderelbe, 1.72 for Sasel. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SAS 3–1 SUD · SUD 0–2 SAS · SUD 2–2 SAS · SAS 3–1 SUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 6 Sept

SÜDERELBE

LWDDLW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

SASEL

LLLLDD2–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	11	+11	25
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	11	+8	22
4	Altona 93	10	+6	20
5	HT16	11	+13	19
6	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	11	+2	18
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Süderelbe	11	+3	15
10	Buchholz	11	−5	15
11	Sasel	11	−3	14
12	ETSV Hamburg	10	0	13
13	HEBC	11	−4	12
14	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	11	−9	11
16	Concordia	11	−9	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	11	−22	4