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Sasel v Pinneberg

Sasel

1–1Full time

Pinneberg

Oberliga - Hamburg · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Sasel 1–1 Pinneberg SASEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sasel win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.969

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sasel win43%

Draw20%

Pinneberg win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sasel winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Sasel a 43% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.1, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sasel win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sasel win	43%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Pinneberg win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
Sasel or draw	63%	–	–
Sasel clean sheet	13%	–	–
Pinneberg clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.9%

0123450 3.0 3.1 2.1 1 3.2 6.4 6.4 4.4 2.3 2 3.5 6.9 6.9 4.7 2.5 3 2.6 5.0 5.1 3.5 4 2.8 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sasel down, Pinneberg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,602 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sasel at home: 1.67 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pinneberg away: 2.00 scored, 2.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Sasel, 2.06 for Pinneberg. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg

SASEL

WLLLLD3–2 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

PINNEBERG

WLLLLW5–0 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tus Dassendorf	10	+18	23
2	Paloma	10	+9	22
3	HT16	11	+13	19
4	Victoria Hamburg	10	+7	19
5	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	11	+2	18
6	Altona 93	9	+4	17
7	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
8	Pinneberg	10	+4	16
9	Buchholz	10	−3	15
10	ETSV Hamburg	9	+1	13
11	Sasel	10	−3	13
12	Süderelbe	10	+1	12
13	HEBC	10	−2	12
14	Nikola Tesla	10	+1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	11	−9	11
16	Concordia	11	−9	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	10	−23	1