Pinneberg v Tus Dassendorf prediction · Oberliga

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Tus Dassendorf are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pinneberg 18%, draw 19%, Tus Dassendorf 63%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Pinneberg v Tus DassendorfBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Pinneberg win18%

Draw19%

Tus Dassendorf win63%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundHamburg · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pinneberg

Tus Dassendorf

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tus dassendorf winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Tus Dassendorf a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.4, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pinneberg v Tus Dassendorf~~1.22 – 2.41

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 23~~7 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pinneberg win	18%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Tus Dassendorf win	63%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Pinneberg or draw	37%	–	–
Pinneberg clean sheet	10%	–	–
Tus Dassendorf clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.1%

0123450 3.0 6.5 7.7 6.1 3.7 1 3.3 7.8 9.1 7.2 4.4 2.22 2.1 4.7 5.5 4.4 2.7 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pinneberg down, Tus Dassendorf across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,614 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Pinneberg at home: 2.40 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). Tus Dassendorf away: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Pinneberg, 2.41 for Tus Dassendorf. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 6 Sept

PINNEBERG

LLLLWD1–5 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

TUS DASSENDORF

WLWDWL1–0 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 3–3 · 4–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	12	+11	26
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	12	+8	23
4	Altona 93	11	+6	21
5	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	12	+5	21
6	HT16	12	+13	20
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Sasel	12	−2	17
10	Süderelbe	12	+2	15
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	11	−5	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	11	0	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	12	−9	12
15	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
16	Concordia	12	−12	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	12	−23	4