Paloma v Altona 93 prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Paloma 2–2 Altona 93 ALTONA 93 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Altona 93 win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.945

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Altona 93 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Paloma 40%, draw 21%, Altona 93 40%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Paloma v Altona 93Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Paloma win40%

Draw21%

Altona 93 win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundHamburg · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paloma

Altona 93

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	11	+11	25
6	Altona 93	10	+6	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · altona 93 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Altona 93 a 40% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paloma v Altona 93~~1.99 – 1.99

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 25 v 20~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paloma win	40%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Altona 93 win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Paloma or draw	60%	–	–
Paloma clean sheet	14%	–	–
Altona 93 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.5%

0123450 2.1 3.8 3.8 2.5 1 3.8 7.5 7.2 4.8 2.4 2 3.7 7.2 7.0 4.7 2.4 3 2.5 4.7 4.6 3.1 4 2.4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paloma down, Altona 93 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.5% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paloma at home: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Altona 93 away: 3.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Paloma, 1.99 for Altona 93. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALT 0–0 PAL · PAL 2–4 ALT · ALT 2–2 PAL · PAL 1–3 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 28 Aug

PALOMA

WWWWLW3–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 4–2

ALTONA 93

WDWDWW4–3 · 5–5 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	11	+11	25
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	12	+8	23
4	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	12	+5	21
5	HT16	12	+13	20
6	Altona 93	10	+6	20
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Sasel	12	−2	17
10	Süderelbe	12	+2	15
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	11	−5	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	11	0	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	12	−9	12
15	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
16	Concordia	12	−12	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	12	−23	4