Norderstedt II v HEBC prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Norderstedt II 1–2 HEBC HEBC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HEBC win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.397

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HEBC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Norderstedt II 29%, draw 22%, HEBC 49%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Norderstedt II v HEBCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Norderstedt II win29%

Draw22%

HEBC win49%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundHamburg · matchday 12

VenueEdmund-Plambeck-Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Norderstedt II

HEBC

3Days since last match5

Last match: 13 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	HEBC	11	−4	12
18	Norderstedt II	11	−22	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hebc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 14 Oct 04:40 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make HEBC a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Norderstedt II v HEBC~~1.44 – 1.92

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 4 v 12~~18 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HEBC win

Published at 53%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Norderstedt II win	29%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
HEBC win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Norderstedt II or draw	51%	–	–
Norderstedt II clean sheet	15%	–	–
HEBC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.9 6.8 6.4 4.1 2.0 1 5.1 9.6 8.9 5.7 2.8 2 3.7 6.7 6.3 4.1 3 3.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Norderstedt II down, HEBC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,608 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.5% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Norderstedt II at home: 1.00 scored, 3.80 conceded a game (last 5). HEBC away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Norderstedt II, 1.92 for HEBC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 4 Sept

NORDERSTEDT II

LLLLDW0–5 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 2–1

HEBC

LLLWWL2–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	11	+11	25
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	11	+8	22
4	Altona 93	10	+6	20
5	HT16	11	+13	19
6	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	11	+2	18
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Süderelbe	11	+3	15
10	Buchholz	11	−5	15
11	Sasel	11	−3	14
12	ETSV Hamburg	10	0	13
13	HEBC	11	−4	12
14	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	11	−9	11
16	Concordia	11	−9	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	11	−22	4