Norderstedt II v ETSV Hamburg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:37

Norderstedt II 2–1 ETSV Hamburg ETSV HAMBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ETSV Hamburg win~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.560

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

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2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

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3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

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The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

Norderstedt II win7%

Draw9%

ETSV Hamburg win83%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:00

VenueEdmund-Plambeck-Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Norderstedt II

ETSV Hamburg

4Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	ETSV Hamburg	9	+1	13
18	Norderstedt II	10	−23	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · etsv hamburg winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

83% The market–

Us83%

We make ETSV Hamburg a 83% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–3.9, and 1–3 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · etsv hamburg win

Published at 84%, 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Norderstedt II win	7%	–	–
Draw	9%	–	–
ETSV Hamburg win	83%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	88%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	74%	–	–
Norderstedt II or draw	17%	–	–
Norderstedt II clean sheet	2%	–	–
ETSV Hamburg clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–3 at 7.0%

0123450 2.5 4.7 6.0 5.7 4.51 3.0 5.6 7.0 6.7 5.22 3.3 4.2 4.0 3.13 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Norderstedt II down, ETSV Hamburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.2% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Norderstedt II at home: 0.75 scored, 4.50 conceded a game (last 4). ETSV Hamburg away: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Norderstedt II, 3.89 for ETSV Hamburg. Most likely score 1–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Oberliga - Hamburg since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg

NORDERSTEDT II

LLLLLD1–3 · 0–5 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 3–3

ETSV HAMBURG

LLLWWL2–3 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 4–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	11	+11	25
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	11	+8	22
4	Altona 93	10	+6	20
5	HT16	11	+13	19
6	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	11	+2	18
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Süderelbe	11	+3	15
10	Buchholz	11	−5	15
11	Sasel	11	−3	14
12	ETSV Hamburg	9	+1	13
13	HEBC	11	−4	12
14	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	11	−9	11
16	Concordia	11	−9	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	10	−23	1