Niendorfer TSV v Buchholz prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Niendorfer TSV 9–5 Buchholz NIENDORFER TSV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Niendorfer TSV win~~57%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.282

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.528

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Niendorfer TSV are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Niendorfer TSV 57%, draw 18%, Buchholz 25%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Niendorfer TSV v BuchholzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Niendorfer TSV win57%

Draw18%

Buchholz win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundHamburg · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Niendorfer TSV

Buchholz

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
12	Buchholz	11	−5	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · niendorfer tsv winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market42%

Us57%

~~Market~~42%

We make Niendorfer TSV a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Niendorfer TSV v Buchholz~~2.71 – 1.81

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 15~~8 v 12

~~The market · Niendorfer TSV win~~42% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Niendorfer TSV win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Niendorfer TSV win	57%	42%	+15
Draw	18%	21%	−3
Buchholz win	25%	38%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	76%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	58%	+8
Niendorfer TSV or draw	75%	62%	+13
Niendorfer TSV clean sheet	17%	–	–
Buchholz clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.1%

0123450 2.0 1 3.0 5.5 4.8 2.9 2 4.1 7.1 6.4 3.8 3 3.6 6.4 5.7 3.4 4 2.5 4.3 3.9 2.3 5 2.4 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Niendorfer TSV down, Buchholz across0–5 goals a side shown (92.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,614 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Niendorfer TSV at home: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Buchholz away: 2.67 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.71 goals for Niendorfer TSV, 1.81 for Buchholz. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~10 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUC 1–1 NIE · NIE 4–3 BUC · NIE 3–1 BUC · BUC 1–5 NIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 6 Sept

NIENDORFER TSV

WWLDLW1–0 · 3–0 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 6–4

BUCHHOLZ

DDWLLL5–5 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–6 · 1–6 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	12	+11	26
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	12	+8	23
4	Altona 93	11	+6	21
5	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	12	+5	21
6	HT16	12	+13	20
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Sasel	12	−2	17
10	Süderelbe	12	+2	15
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	11	−5	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	11	0	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	12	−9	12
15	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
16	Concordia	12	−12	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	12	−23	4