HT16 v ETSV Hamburg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

HT16 2–2 ETSV Hamburg ETSV HAMBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ETSV Hamburg win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.061

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ETSV Hamburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HT16 26%, draw 18%, ETSV Hamburg 56%. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 79%.

The AI’s read on HT16 v ETSV HamburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

HT16 win26%

Draw18%

ETSV Hamburg win56%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundHamburg · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HT16

ETSV Hamburg

8Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

Last match: 13 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	HT16	11	+13	19
13	ETSV Hamburg	10	0	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · etsv hamburg winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:40 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make ETSV Hamburg a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–2.8, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HT16 v ETSV Hamburg~~1.90 – 2.76

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 13~~6 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ETSV Hamburg win

Published at 58%, 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HT16 win	26%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
ETSV Hamburg win	56%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	84%	–	–
Both teams to score	79%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	68%	–	–
HT16 or draw	44%	–	–
HT16 clean sheet	7%	–	–
ETSV Hamburg clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 6.8%

0123450 2.7 3.7 3.4 2.3 1 5.1 6.8 6.2 4.3 2.42 4.7 6.3 5.7 4.0 2.23 3.0 4.0 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HT16 down, ETSV Hamburg across0–5 goals a side shown (92.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,612 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.5% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HT16 at home: 3.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). ETSV Hamburg away: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for HT16, 2.76 for ETSV Hamburg. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HT 0–2 ETS · ETS 6–1 HT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 28 Aug

HT16

WLWDWW5–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 4–1 · 5–0

ETSV HAMBURG

LLWWLL1–4 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 4–6 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	11	+11	25
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	12	+8	23
4	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	12	+5	21
5	Altona 93	10	+6	20
6	HT16	11	+13	19
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Sasel	12	−2	17
10	Süderelbe	12	+2	15
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	11	−5	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	10	0	13
14	Teutonia Ottensen	12	−9	12
15	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
16	Concordia	12	−12	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	12	−23	4