HEBC v Süderelbe prediction · Oberliga - Hamburg

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:33

HEBC 1–3 Süderelbe SÜDERELBE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Süderelbe win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

HEBC win37%

Draw25%

Süderelbe win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:45

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

HEBC

Süderelbe

9Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Süderelbe	10	+1	12
13	HEBC	10	−2	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · süderelbe winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Süderelbe a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HEBC win	37%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Süderelbe win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
HEBC or draw	62%	–	–
HEBC clean sheet	24%	–	–
Süderelbe clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.1 8.2 5.9 2.9 1 8.0 11.5 8.2 4.1 2 5.7 8.0 5.8 2.9 3 2.7 3.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HEBC down, Süderelbe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,605 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HEBC at home: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Süderelbe away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for HEBC, 1.46 for Süderelbe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SUD 1–0 HEB · HEB 0–0 SUD · HEB 1–2 SUD · SUD 2–3 HEB

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg

HEBC

LLLLWW0–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–0

SÜDERELBE

LLWDDL2–5 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
2	Paloma	10	+9	22
3	Victoria Hamburg	11	+8	22
4	Altona 93	10	+5	20
5	HT16	11	+13	19
6	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	11	+2	18
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Buchholz	10	−3	15
10	Sasel	11	−3	14
11	ETSV Hamburg	9	+1	13
12	Süderelbe	10	+1	12
13	HEBC	10	−2	12
14	Nikola Tesla	11	0	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	11	−9	11
16	Concordia	11	−9	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	10	−23	1