HEBC v Sasel prediction · Oberliga - Hamburg

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HEBCDrawSasel

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:45

Before kick-off · Match result · HEBC 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with HEBC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: HEBC 40%, draw 23%, Sasel 37%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on HEBC v SaselBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

HEBC win40%

Draw23%

Sasel win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:45

RoundHamburg · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HEBC

Sasel

9Days since last match9

Last match: 16 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Sasel	12	−2	17
11	HEBC	12	−3	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hebc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make HEBC a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HEBC v Sasel~~1.67 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 17~~11 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HEBC win	40%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Sasel win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
HEBC or draw	63%	–	–
HEBC clean sheet	21%	–	–
Sasel clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.1 6.1 4.9 2.6 1 6.4 10.1 8.0 4.3 2 5.3 8.3 6.6 3.5 3 3.0 4.6 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HEBC down, Sasel across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.4% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HEBC at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sasel away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for HEBC, 1.60 for Sasel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HEB 1–1 SAS · SAS 4–4 HEB · SAS 3–1 HEB · HEB 2–2 SAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 13 Sept

HEBC

LLWWLW2–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–1

SASEL

LLLDDW0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	13	+13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	+11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	+6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	12	+16	23
5	Niendorfer TSV	13	+3	23
6	Altona 93	12	+5	21
7	HT16	12	+13	20
8	Pinneberg	12	+6	20
9	Süderelbe	13	+3	18
10	Sasel	12	−2	17
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	12	−9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	−1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	−11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	−2	11
16	Concordia	13	−15	11
17	Harksheide	12	−11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	−22	7