Harksheide v Paloma prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Harksheide 0–2 Paloma PALOMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paloma win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.214

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paloma are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Harksheide 20%, draw 18%, Paloma 62%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Harksheide v PalomaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Harksheide win20%

Draw18%

Paloma win62%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundHamburg · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Harksheide

Paloma

14Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	12	+11	26
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paloma winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Paloma a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.6, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Harksheide v Paloma~~1.45 – 2.63

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 26~~17 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Harksheide win	20%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Paloma win	62%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
Harksheide or draw	38%	–	–
Harksheide clean sheet	8%	–	–
Paloma clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 4.5 5.9 5.1 3.4 1 2.5 6.6 8.3 7.2 4.7 2.52 4.7 6.0 5.2 3.4 3 2.3 2.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Harksheide down, Paloma across0–5 goals a side shown (94.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,615 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.2% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.75 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Harksheide at home: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Paloma away: 3.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Harksheide, 2.63 for Paloma. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.75

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HAR 1–5 PAL · PAL 3–1 HAR · PAL 4–1 HAR · HAR 4–5 PAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 4 Sept

HARKSHEIDE

LWDDLD1–3 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–3

PALOMA

WWWLWD2–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	12	+11	26
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	12	+8	23
4	Altona 93	11	+6	21
5	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	12	+5	21
6	HT16	12	+13	20
7	Niendorfer TSV	12	+2	20
8	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
9	Sasel	12	−2	17
10	Süderelbe	12	+2	15
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	12	−9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	11	0	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	12	−9	12
15	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
16	Concordia	12	−12	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	12	−23	4