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Harksheide v Norderstedt II

Harksheide

3–3Full time

Norderstedt II

Oberliga - Hamburg · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:00

Harksheide 3–3 Norderstedt II HARKSHEIDE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Harksheide win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.045

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Harksheide win57%

Draw19%

Norderstedt II win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · harksheide winPublished 9 Oct 20:33

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Harksheide a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Harksheide win	57%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Norderstedt II win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Harksheide or draw	75%	–	–
Harksheide clean sheet	20%	–	–
Norderstedt II clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.7 2.2 1 4.1 6.5 5.2 2.9 2 5.1 7.9 6.4 3.5 3 4.2 6.6 5.3 2.9 4 2.7 4.2 3.4 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Harksheide down, Norderstedt II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Harksheide at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Norderstedt II away: 1.20 scored, 2.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.52 goals for Harksheide, 1.64 for Norderstedt II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg

HARKSHEIDE

DLWDDL0–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

NORDERSTEDT II

LLLLLL0–3 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tus Dassendorf	10	+18	23
2	Paloma	10	+9	22
3	Victoria Hamburg	10	+7	19
4	Altona 93	9	+4	17
5	HT16	10	+8	16
6	Pinneberg	10	+4	16
7	Buchholz	10	−3	15
8	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	10	−4	15
9	Niendorfer TSV	10	−4	14
10	ETSV Hamburg	8	+3	13
11	Sasel	10	−3	13
12	Süderelbe	10	+1	12
13	HEBC	10	−2	12
14	Nikola Tesla	10	+1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	10	−3	11
16	Concordia	10	−4	11
17	Harksheide	10	−9	7
18	Norderstedt II	9	−23	0