ETSV Hamburg v Vorwärts-Wacker 04 prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

ETSV Hamburg 4–5 Vorwärts-Wacker 04 ETSV HAMBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ETSV Hamburg win~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.311

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ETSV Hamburg are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ETSV Hamburg 73%, draw 13%, Vorwärts-Wacker 04 13%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on ETSV Hamburg v Vorwärts-Wacker 04Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

ETSV Hamburg win73%

Draw13%

Vorwärts-Wacker 04 win13%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundHamburg · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ETSV Hamburg

Vorwärts-Wacker 04

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

Last match: 16 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	12	+5	21
13	ETSV Hamburg	11	0	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · etsv hamburg winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make ETSV Hamburg a 73% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–1.4, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ETSV Hamburg v Vorwärts-Wacker 04~~3.32 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 21~~13 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ETSV Hamburg win	73%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	85%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	69%	–	–
ETSV Hamburg or draw	87%	–	–
ETSV Hamburg clean sheet	25%	–	–
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.3%

0123450 1 3.0 4.3 3.0 2 4.9 6.8 4.8 2.3 3 5.3 7.3 5.2 2.5 4 4.4 6.0 4.3 2.0 5 2.9 4.0 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+ETSV Hamburg down, Vorwärts-Wacker 04 across0–5 goals a side shown (87.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,615 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.2% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 6.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ETSV Hamburg at home: 2.17 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vorwärts-Wacker 04 away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.32 goals for ETSV Hamburg, 1.42 for Vorwärts-Wacker 04. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~6.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ETS 8–0 VOR · VOR 0–5 ETS · VOR 1–1 ETS · ETS 9–1 VOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 11 Sept

ETSV HAMBURG

LWWLLD2–3 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 4–6 · 1–2 · 2–2

VORWÄRTS-WACKER 04

WDWLWW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 7–1 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	12	+11	26
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	12	+8	23
4	Altona 93	11	+6	21
5	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	12	+5	21
6	HT16	12	+13	20
7	Niendorfer TSV	12	+2	20
8	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
9	Sasel	12	−2	17
10	Süderelbe	12	+2	15
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	12	−9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	11	0	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	12	−9	12
15	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
16	Concordia	12	−12	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	12	−23	4