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ETSV Hamburg v Niendorfer TSV

ETSV Hamburg

4–6Full time

Niendorfer TSV

Oberliga - Hamburg · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

ETSV Hamburg 4–6 Niendorfer TSV ETSV HAMBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ETSV Hamburg win~~65%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.124

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.768

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

ETSV Hamburg win65%

Draw18%

Niendorfer TSV win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · etsv hamburg winPublished 9 Oct 21:03

65% The market49%

Us65%

~~Market~~49%

We make ETSV Hamburg a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · etsv hamburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ETSV Hamburg win	65%	49%	+16
Draw	18%	21%	−3
Niendorfer TSV win	18%	30%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Both teams to score	66%	73%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
ETSV Hamburg or draw	82%	70%	+12
ETSV Hamburg clean sheet	29%	–	–
Niendorfer TSV clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 2.4 2.8 1 5.6 7.1 4.5 2 7.1 8.8 5.6 2.4 3 6.0 7.4 4.7 2.0 4 3.9 4.8 3.0 5 2.0 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+ETSV Hamburg down, Niendorfer TSV across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ETSV Hamburg at home: 2.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Niendorfer TSV away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.56 goals for ETSV Hamburg, 1.28 for Niendorfer TSV. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ETS 2–1 NIE · NIE 2–3 ETS · ETS 0–1 NIE · NIE 0–4 ETS

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg

ETSV HAMBURG

WLLLWW4–1 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 4–1

NIENDORFER TSV

LWWLDL0–5 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tus Dassendorf	10	+18	23
2	Paloma	10	+9	22
3	Victoria Hamburg	10	+7	19
4	Altona 93	9	+4	17
5	HT16	10	+8	16
6	Pinneberg	10	+4	16
7	Buchholz	10	−3	15
8	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	10	−4	15
9	Niendorfer TSV	10	−4	14
10	ETSV Hamburg	8	+3	13
11	Sasel	10	−3	13
12	Süderelbe	10	+1	12
13	HEBC	10	−2	12
14	Nikola Tesla	10	+1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	10	−3	11
16	Concordia	10	−4	11
17	Harksheide	10	−9	7
18	Norderstedt II	9	−23	0