Concordia v Victoria Hamburg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Concordia 0–3 Victoria Hamburg VICTORIA HAMBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Victoria Hamburg win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.234

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Victoria Hamburg are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Concordia 22%, draw 18%, Victoria Hamburg 61%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Concordia v Victoria HamburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Concordia win22%

Draw18%

Victoria Hamburg win61%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundHamburg · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Concordia

Victoria Hamburg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Victoria Hamburg	12	+8	23
16	Concordia	12	−12	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · victoria hamburg winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Victoria Hamburg a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.6, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Concordia v Victoria Hamburg~~1.53 – 2.63

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 23~~16 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Concordia win	22%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Victoria Hamburg win	61%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Concordia or draw	39%	–	–
Concordia clean sheet	8%	–	–
Victoria Hamburg clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.1%

0123450 4.2 5.4 4.7 3.1 1 2.5 6.4 8.1 7.0 4.6 2.52 4.8 6.1 5.3 3.5 3 2.5 3.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Concordia down, Victoria Hamburg across0–5 goals a side shown (93.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,615 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.2% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.75 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Concordia at home: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Victoria Hamburg away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Concordia, 2.63 for Victoria Hamburg. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.75

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~8 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CON 3–3 VIC · VIC 3–3 CON · CON 2–1 VIC · VIC 4–3 CON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 11 Sept

CONCORDIA

WDLWLL4–2 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 2–5

VICTORIA HAMBURG

WWDDWD3–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	12	+11	26
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	12	+8	23
4	Altona 93	11	+6	21
5	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	12	+5	21
6	HT16	12	+13	20
7	Niendorfer TSV	12	+2	20
8	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
9	Sasel	12	−2	17
10	Süderelbe	12	+2	15
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	12	−9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	11	0	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	12	−9	12
15	Nikola Tesla	11	−1	11
16	Concordia	12	−12	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	12	−23	4