Buchholz v Paloma prediction · Oberliga - Hamburg

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Buchholz 2–4 Paloma PALOMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paloma win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.347

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Buchholz win29%

Draw18%

Paloma win52%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Buchholz

Paloma

7Days since last match7

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Paloma	10	+9	22
9	Buchholz	10	−3	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paloma winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Paloma a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–2.6, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buchholz win	29%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Paloma win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	78%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
Buchholz or draw	48%	–	–
Buchholz clean sheet	8%	–	–
Paloma clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 6.9%

0123450 2.9 3.7 3.2 2.1 1 2.2 5.6 6.9 5.9 3.8 2.02 2.1 5.2 6.6 5.6 3.7 3 3.4 4.3 3.6 2.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Buchholz down, Paloma across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,605 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Buchholz at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Paloma away: 4.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Buchholz, 2.59 for Paloma. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUC 4–0 PAL · PAL 5–0 BUC · BUC 2–3 PAL · PAL 1–4 BUC

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg

BUCHHOLZ

WDDWLL3–2 · 5–5 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–6 · 1–6

PALOMA

WWWWWL5–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
2	Paloma	10	+9	22
3	Victoria Hamburg	11	+8	22
4	Altona 93	10	+5	20
5	HT16	11	+13	19
6	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	11	+2	18
7	Pinneberg	11	+4	17
8	Niendorfer TSV	11	−2	17
9	Buchholz	10	−3	15
10	Sasel	11	−3	14
11	ETSV Hamburg	9	+1	13
12	Süderelbe	10	+1	12
13	HEBC	10	−2	12
14	Nikola Tesla	11	0	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	11	−9	11
16	Concordia	11	−9	11
17	Harksheide	11	−9	8
18	Norderstedt II	10	−23	1