Buchholz v HT16 prediction · Oberliga - Hamburg

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BuchholzDrawHT16

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · HT16 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HT16 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Buchholz 35%, draw 17%, HT16 48%. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 86%.

The AI’s read on Buchholz v HT16Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Buchholz win35%

Draw17%

HT16 win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundHamburg · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Buchholz

HT16

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	HT16	12	+13	20
12	Buchholz	12	−9	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ht16 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make HT16 a 48% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–3.0, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Buchholz v HT16~~2.54 – 2.96

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 20~~12 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buchholz win	35%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
HT16 win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	90%	–	–
Both teams to score	86%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	79%	–	–
Buchholz or draw	52%	–	–
Buchholz clean sheet	6%	–	–
HT16 clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 5.7%

0123450 1 3.3 4.6 4.4 3.3 2 4.0 5.7 5.5 4.0 2.43 3.3 4.7 4.5 3.4 2.04 2.1 3.0 2.9 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Buchholz down, HT16 across0–5 goals a side shown (86.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,622 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games this season, across 112 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Buchholz at home: 2.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). HT16 away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.54 goals for Buchholz, 2.96 for HT16. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HT 2–3 BUC · BUC 2–4 HT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 11 Sept

BUCHHOLZ

DWLLLL2–2 · 1–0 · 3–6 · 1–6 · 2–4 · 5–9

HT16

LWDWWD0–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 4–1 · 5–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	13	+13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	+11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	+6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	12	+16	23
5	Niendorfer TSV	13	+3	23
6	Altona 93	12	+5	21
7	HT16	12	+13	20
8	Pinneberg	12	+6	20
9	Süderelbe	13	+3	18
10	Sasel	12	−2	17
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	12	−9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	−1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	−11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	−2	11
16	Concordia	13	−15	11
17	Harksheide	12	−11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	−22	7