Altona 93 v Niendorfer TSV prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Altona 93 2–3 Niendorfer TSV ALTONA 93 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Altona 93 win~~54%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.853

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.689

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Altona 93 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Altona 93 54%, draw 19%, Niendorfer TSV 27%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Altona 93 v Niendorfer TSVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Altona 93 win54%

Draw19%

Niendorfer TSV win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundHamburg · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Altona 93

Niendorfer TSV

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Hamburg

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Altona 93	11	+6	21
8	Niendorfer TSV	12	+2	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · altona 93 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

54% The market46%

Us54%

~~Market~~46%

We make Altona 93 a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Altona 93 v Niendorfer TSV~~2.47 – 1.73

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 20~~5 v 8

~~The market · Altona 93 win~~46% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Altona 93 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Altona 93 win	54%	46%	+8
Draw	19%	20%	−1
Niendorfer TSV win	27%	34%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	78%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	62%	−2
Altona 93 or draw	73%	66%	+7
Altona 93 clean sheet	18%	–	–
Niendorfer TSV clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.7 2.4 1 3.8 6.5 5.5 3.2 2 4.6 7.7 6.6 3.8 3 3.7 6.2 5.3 3.1 4 2.3 3.9 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Altona 93 down, Niendorfer TSV across0–5 goals a side shown (94.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 Oberliga - Hamburg matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Hamburg matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.4% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Altona 93 at home: 3.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Niendorfer TSV away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.47 goals for Altona 93, 1.73 for Niendorfer TSV. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALT 2–2 NIE · NIE 0–1 ALT · NIE 0–5 ALT · ALT 1–0 NIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Hamburg this season · since 13 Sept

ALTONA 93

DWDWWD5–5 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 4–2 · 2–2

NIENDORFER TSV

WLDLWW3–0 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 6–4 · 9–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paloma	13	+13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	+11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	+6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	11	+17	23
5	Altona 93	11	+6	21
6	HT16	12	+13	20
7	Pinneberg	12	+6	20
8	Niendorfer TSV	12	+2	20
9	Sasel	12	−2	17
10	Süderelbe	12	+2	15
11	HEBC	12	−3	15
12	Buchholz	12	−9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	−1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	−11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	−2	11
16	Concordia	13	−15	11
17	Harksheide	12	−11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	−22	7